There are some obvious falsehoods in Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric.

— “American manufacturing is in decline.” The actual facts are that U.S. manufacturing output reached its highest point ever in 2016. American manufacturers today produce an output of goods 47 percent higher than 20 years ago. Concomitantly, manufacturing jobs have declined by almost 30 percent in the same time period.

The startling employment decline results from increases in productivity due to changes in manufacturing technology and not trade agreements. Twenty years ago, many manufacturing jobs required little more than a strong body and nimble hands. Today’s workers need higher math skills, the ability to program complex robotics on the fly, and often an understanding of basic mechanical engineering. The manufacturing jobs are there but all too often the qualified workers are not.

— “We are losing jobs because of trade agreements.” Almost 8 percent of American jobs are a direct result of exports. In manufacturing employment, the number jumps to 27 percent of the labor force.

In Washington, the percentage of jobs directly linked to trade is an astounding 33 percent of our labor force, including jobs in manufacturing, agriculture, shipping, transportation, and technology. Almost 90 percent of the exporters are small and mid-sized firms.

— “I’ll build a wall and make Mexico pay for it.” First, his estimates of the wall’s cost ($8 billion) do not even cover half of the cost of materials much less labor, surveying, and engineering. The real cost probably exceeds five times his estimate, not to mention the economic damage it would do to both nations. Secondly, his scheme of funding through freezing remittances being sent to Mexico from people in the U.S. would be tied up in litigation for years and likely found to be illegal.

— “I’ll send illegal immigrants back.” First, the policy assumes the countries of origin will take them. Secondly, the right-wing American Action Forum estimates the cost of doing this at over half a trillion dollars and have a time line of 20 years.

The truth is, Trump is lying to someone — himself, us, or both — and economically we can’t afford his lies.

Tom DeBor
Poulsbo