Even if growth in the South Kitsap Industrial Area grows at a snail’s pace during the next two decades, the city of Bremerton will receive a modest financial benefit from the more than 3,000 acres presented in two annexation petitions in April, according to the most recent assessment of the area completed by the city’s Department of Community Development.

The Bremerton City Council will receive a formal presentation on the report at its June 16 meeting, which begins at 5:30 p.m. in the Council Chambers in the Norm Dicks Government Center. The entire report can be viewed on the city’s Web site, www.ci.bremerton.wa.us.

Because the two petitions presented to the city represent 100 percent of the assessed property value for the proposed annexations, city staff utilized the 60-day period required for the city council to conduct a public hearing on the petitions to complete a detailed financial assessment of the areas, according to the report.

“It should be understood that the analysis presented is dependent upon future events and that actual conditions may (and are likely to) differ from those assumed herein,” the report states.

Three growth scenarios are presented for the proposed annexation area: Scenario A: Low Growth — Growth that occurs over the next 20 years that closely matches the current growth patterns experienced within SKIA; Scenario B: High Growth — Aggressive growth that is primarily focused within the Port Industrial Park over the 20-year period, and Scenario C: SKIA Sub Area Plan Growth — Aggressive growth within the entire SKIA UGA over the 20-year planning horizon.

“These scenarios provide a reasonable ‘bookend’ approach to determine the full range of financial impacts of the annexation,” it states. “We believe that the future growth patterns will likely fall somewhere between these scenarios, and as such they are a good demonstration of the full range of potential financial impacts to the city and will help to determine if it is in the city’s best interest to accept these annexation petitions.”

Scenario A: Low Growth Development Summary

“This growth model is considered the low end picture of what the city may face if annexation was completed and growth occurred in this area in the same scope and scale that it has occurred in recent years,” the report states.

The expectation is that there will be small business growth within the Port Industrial Park, increasing by two new businesses every five years.

The eight new businesses will create an estimated 145 jobs and no major infrastructure improvements will have to be made, resulting in a cumulative 20-year financial gain of more than $1 million.

Scenario B: High Growth Development Summary

“This growth model was developed to provide a model of development that fell between the conservative low growth model and the aggressively high growth model of the Kitsap County Sub Area Plan,” the report states.

Under this scenario the expectation is that 15 businesses will be created every five years, and that more than 2,400 new jobs will be created.

“In summary, the base annexation picture with the High Growth Scenario appears to be a positive financial impact for the city based on the assumptions modeled and has average net annual revenue of just over $320,000 with an ending cumulative 20-year financial gain of $6,475,552,” the report states.

Scenario C: SKIA Sub Area Plan Growth Development Summary

“This growth model describes development at an extremely high growth rate based on the ‘South Kitsap Industrial Area Sub-Area Plan’ (SKIA SAP) dated Dec. 8, 2003, developed and researched by Kitsap County Department of Community Development,” the city’s report states.

The expectation is that more than 9,000 new jobs will be created over the 20-year period with the addition of about 100 new businesses.

“In summary, the base annexation picture with the SKIA Sub Area Plan Scenario appears to be a positive financial impact for the city based on the assumptions modeled and has average net annual revenue of just under $370,000 with anending cumulative 20-year financial gain of $7,383,713.”