If we had a crystal ball that revealed the future, we would be able to see what effects this recession and the bursting of the housing bubble will have on local government spending.

Instead, we have to make our best guesses in order to prepare for what the future will bring.

The recession may be over already, but economic growth may not accelerate enough to make it obvious for quite a while.

The National Bureau of Economic Research is generally accepted as the authority in determining when a recession begins and ends — and they aren’t yet ready to say when or whether this recession has ended.

Even if NBER eventually decides the recession ended last June or July, the local economy won’t necessarily respond at the same time or to the same degree.

Sales tax distributions to county government in this year’s first quarter are down compared to the same quarter last year.

It appears that county government must continue searching for ways to align spending with revenues. Even when the revenue decline stops, subsequent increases aren’t likely to be as big as those caused by the previous boom.

For property taxes, the tax base is the total assessed value of taxable property within each taxing district — and the tax bases also rose quickly during the boom.

The peak for the county’s tax base was January 2007. Since then it has shrunk by about 12 percent, counting the probable decline during the past year.

How much longer will assessed property values fall? No one knows, but if the tax base will have declined by only 12 percent since 2007 after a 68 percent rise from 2004 to 2007, there’s probably more to come.

Falling assessed values don’t necessarily mean property tax revenue goes down. Unless a taxing district’s levy is at its maximum allowable tax rate, the money collected can still rise.

There are some levies that will surely be affected by further declines in assessed values.

Every emergency services levy except the one imposed by the fire district serving Bainbridge Island is at its maximum rate this year.

Lower tax bases for taxes due in 2011 will cause those EMS levies — including the one here in South Kitsap — to collect less next year compared to this year.

Since South Kitsap Fire and Rescue won voter approval for a new, higher six-year EMS levy to improve service rather than merely maintain the same level of service, a decline in revenue may squeeze them a little.

The idea of consolidating SKFR and the Bremerton fire department may be a victim of the declining tax base. It may not be possible to collect enough in property taxes to maintain funding at the current level.

Of course, benefit charges could be added as revenue sources with voter approval to make a consolidation feasible, but taxes alone may not do it.

The Port of Bremerton’s six-year levy to pay for the expanded marina doesn’t expire until 2012, but the amount collected will decline again along with the tax base since it’s already at its maximum rate.

Possibly the most interesting situation could be the Kitsap County Rural Library District lid lift being considered by the district’s board of trustees.

Lower tax bases could mean that the cities of Poulsbo and Port Orchard would feel the effect of a higher library district levy in 2011.

Often in the past, proponents of levy propositions made the rounds to city councils seeking endorsements — and those city councils had nothing to lose by supporting the ballot measures.

Things might be different for Poulsbo, which could see its own city levy reduced by a library district lid lift.

Port Orchard would have to pay more from its general fund under its contract with the library district if a lid lift is approved.

Now that would be something to see — city council members considering whether to recommend voter approval of a ballot measure when they realize their own city’s budget would be directly impacted.

Bob Meadows is a Port Orchard resident.